Power Of Iterative Improvement And Contemplative Time When Making Decisions.
Edition #144
Introduction
Welcome to The ContraMind Code.
The ContraMind Code provides you with a system of principles, signals, and ideas to aid you in your pursuit of excellence.
The newsletter shares the source code through quick snapshots for a systems thinking approach to be the best in what you do.
The Code helps you reboot and reimagine your thinking by learning from the best and enables you to draw a blueprint on what it takes to get extraordinary things done. Please share your valuable thoughts and comments and start a conversation.
Take a journey to www.contraminds.com. Listen and watch some great minds talking to us about their journey of discovery of what went into making them craftsmen of their profession to drive peak performance.
YouTube: From Concept to Hypergrowth.
This is a fantastic article and story - history brilliantly written! Thanks, Kevin Gee. It is filled with fascinating nuggets from which we can learn a lot.
Just to set the context:
Earlier this week, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai revealed that YouTube LTM revenues had surpassed $50bn for the first time.
This article chronicles Jawed Karim’s account of the business environment and tech trends pre-YouTube days and how some of the earlier killer applications paved the way for the YouTube idea. It also outlines how a disruptive idea proliferates, what it takes to embed and spread it, and some fascinating takeaways on how different investors evaluate such disruptive ideas. It also highlights the importance of secondary technologies that help some disruptive ideas gain adoption and drive hyper-growth. Finally, it’s not a bed of roses to execute the idea with so many naysayers as they don’t see what the founder or the entrepreneur sees in the idea. It requires patience, belief and conviction to see the idea to fruition.
One question that always remains when you look back when such hyper-growth happens is - What’s the right time for the founders to exit?
Read the entire article here.
Is Google’s Reign Over? The Future of AI Search w/Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas
Any search on the web today is dominated by Google. Is the search on the web waiting to be disrupted? Will there be a new way to search for information, not just restricted to the search box that Google has? Is AI expected to transform search with some unique yet transformative experience?
Perplexity, as its CEO Arvind Srinivas puts it, is not a search engine but an answer engine. Perplexity AI is a conversational search engine that uses large language models to answer queries. Perplexity was founded in 2022 and has gained significant attention and interest. In this conversation with TED Tech, Arvind talks about how Perplexity is redefining the search language. Here are some quotes from this conversation that can make you think and reflect on this topic:
How is Perplexity different from Google? Google is fundamentally a link engine; however, with Perplexity, it helps you find answers to your questions. Therefore, as Arvind Srinivas puts it, “Google, great, you're the king of links, and I want to be the king of answers.”
“Ideal internet is where there's a thriving ecosystem of good content creation, but more focus on content and adding value, rather than trying to get link click traffic.”
“The way you get the knowledge discovered to people is through their questions, not keywords anymore.”
“The fundamental consumer behaviour of typing in one word to get to a site is a saturated trend. It's over.”
“So I think we're going to have a world where both human and AI content are going to be valued equally, or maybe even more than what it is today.”
“Perplexity's mission is to be the most knowledge-centric company. I think knowledge is infinite, so you can always serve that mission.”
You can also listen to the entire podcast here:
Facts, Fictions And Critical Thinking | The Future of Decision Making | Nobel Prize Dialogue Sydney
This is a part of the Nobel Prize Dialogue Series, and this conversation is with Prof. Saul Perlmutter. Prof.Saul Perlmutter is a Nobel Laureate, sharing the 2011 Physics Prize for the discovery of the accelerating expansion of the universe. He is a professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley and a senior scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. He is the leader of the international Supernova Cosmology Project and the founding director of the Berkeley Institute for Data Science. Joining him in the conversation is Tim Minchin, comedian, actor, composer, songwriter, pianist and director.
Prof. Saul and Tim share their thoughts about decision-making and the importance of facts, fiction and critical thinking in daily life. Here are some key takeaways:
When making decisions, Prof.Saul talks about how to learn from scientists who approach any problem with the understanding that they almost never know whether something is absolutely true or absolutely false.
Scientists absorb vast amounts of information and still claim to be only 90% right. They set aside their ego and accept that they may be wrong ten times out of ninety. Eventually, they can change your mind, which puts them in a better position when they are 90% confident.
Prof. Saul and Tim talk about why humility is needed while making decisions, as it allows you to admit you are wrong and understand when to ask questions.
Both of them talk about taking time to be contemplative when making decisions. In the fast-paced world, taking time allows you to think critically when making decisions.
There is a thing or two to learn about decision-making from ‘scientific optimism’. Most scientific problems do not take hours or days but decades to solve, as long as there is an ‘iterative improvement’ in their quest for discovery.
When making decisions, it is vital to look at the people you disagree with and understand what they are thinking and the issues in their minds.
You can watch the entire video by clicking the above link.
Power Of Iterative Improvement And Contemplative Time When Making Decisions.
When you want to make decisions, there is an adrenaline rush to quickly come to conclusions. These conclusions may not necessarily be correct, however in the rush to take the decision, you tend to ignore some facts and the inherent biases that you may have. Also, you get into a ‘confidence trap’ which blinds you from seeing the easily observable patterns. Finally, your ego comes in the way as you don’t want to go back on the decision you have already made, while along the way, you see and sense some deviation or mistakes in your assumptions, but you tend to get stuck and fixated about the decision. This needs to be avoided when you make decisions.
How do you avoid this when making a decision?
When you practice and deploy iterative improvement while you make decisions, it stops you from quickly jumping to conclusions. You become more aware of some facts or findings that fall into your ‘not-so-confident zone’. You also develop ‘cautious optimism’ and humility, allowing you to tweak and improve your decision. It makes you more adaptable and flexible, which helps you make mid-way course corrections about your decisions.
With ‘contemplative time’, you make some space in your mind to think about your decisions. Contemplative time allows you to look at the pros and cons, simulate multiple scenarios in your mind, and consider alternative viewpoints before making a decision. Giving a ‘time break’ between ‘ your findings and the final decision’ will throw up new perspectives which you may have ignored or missed.
How do you find contemplative time for yourself? You may take a break, take a walk in the park, shut yourself off from the current problem or issue, read a book, engage in a sports activity, shut your devices etc., but the core idea here is to break the set patterns or algorithms in your brain when making decisions.
Here are some challenges you have to prepare yourself for:
Overcome the narrative that you have been repeatedly told over time about being a decisive leader and how decisive leaders are successful. Decisive does not mean not being flexible or, adaptable, or iterative as more facts come your way.
Learn to ignore the opinions of people who express that you are unsure about your approach to solving the problem or issue. They may also say you constantly keep changing your mind and cannot set a concrete path for action. When facts show contrary trends, it is best not to ignore them after you have made the decision.
People extol leaders who are quick and act on things at speed. However, contemplative time is not an antithesis of speed. So, contemplative time is like giving yourself ‘periods of silence’ that allow you time to reflect on the issue and revisit your assumptions, findings and conclusion. Hence, ‘moments of inaction’ could be seen as slowing down, but letting others’ opinions not affect you during this phase is vital.
Iterative improvement and contemplative time ‘stretch’ your attention span between a problem and a decision. You must overcome any ‘attention deficit’ you may experience during this period. Attention requires increased intensity and focus and saps your energy, and you must build mental resilience to stay the course.
Keep iterating and improving, and take time to contemplate when you make decisions.
Some of the lessons we learnt from this week’s mission:
Disruptive ideas require patience, belief and conviction against all odds.
AI has the ability to transform search engines into answer engines.
Learn how to make the right decisions from the way scientists do.